Leeds vs Norwich Prediction | Opta Analyst

After a goalless draw in the first leg, these two teams meet again at Elland Road on Thursday night for a place in the Championship play-off final at Wembley. We look ahead to this clash with our Leeds vs Norwich prediction and preview.


Leeds vs Norwich Stats: The Quick Hits

  • The Opta supercomputer rates Leeds as the favourites for this match, winning 57.7% of the pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes.
  • Leeds have lost their last two home games and are winless in three at Elland Road coming into this match.
  • Norwich restricted Leeds to just six shots and 0.25 expected goals in the first leg of this tie – the Yorkshire club’s lowest tallies of the 2023-24 Championship season.

Match Preview

Following a goalless draw at Carrow Road in the first leg on 12 May, Leeds United and Norwich City face one another in the second leg at Elland Road on Thursday for a place in the 2023-24 Championship play-off final at Wembley.

Daniel Farke will be hoping home advantage sees his Leeds team progress to face the winners of the other semi-final between Southampton and West Brom on 26 May. Only Ipswich (54) won more points at home in the Championship this season than Leeds (53), with the Whites losing just twice in 23 games there. These losses did come their final two home games of the regular season versus Blackburn and Southampton, however.

Farke is one of the most successful managers in Norwich history, having won promotion from the Championship on two occasions, both as title-winners in 2019 and 2021. He’s the only manager to win two league titles at the club.

His current side Leeds were unlucky not to win automatic promotion from the Championship this term, with their run-in – one win and four defeats in their final six games – coupled with the exceptional campaigns by both Leicester City and Ipswich Town seeing them miss out by finishing third in the table.

The last team to win as many as 90 points in a Championship season and end up outside the automatic promotion places were Sunderland in 1997-98 (also 90 points). Sunderland eventually lost in the play-off final that season to Charlton Athletic following a penalty shootout.

After relegation from the Premier League last season, Leeds refreshed their squad for 2023-24 and had the second youngest average starting XI in the competition this term (24 years, 147 days), behind only Sunderland (22y 352d).

Of the teams in the Championship play-offs this season, Norwich spent the fewest days inside the top six places (102) but their form in the second half of the campaign saw them finish ahead of Hull City in the table to compete for the final ticket to the Premier League.

Like Leeds, Norwich’s end-of-season form was far from impressive, with only one win in their final five games and a loss on the final day at relegated Birmingham City. Overall in 2023-24, they won just 24 points away from home in the Championship, a tally that was higher than just five of the other 23 sides in the competition.

David Wagner’s job in Norfolk was reportedly under threat before their form turned a corner in 2024, and he’ll be looking to win promotion to the Premier League for a second time. His first promotion came via the play-offs in 2017, when he led Huddersfield to success over Reading in the final following a penalty shootout at Wembley.

Leeds vs Norwich Head-to-Head

The first leg of this play-off tie at Carrow Road was largely uneventful, with just three shots on target across the entire match. Leeds attempted only six shots in the game, which was their lowest tally of the season in the Championship, while their expected goals (xG) total of 0.25 was another low across 2023-24.

Norwich 0-0 Leeds Playoffs

Norwich will be looking to defeat Leeds United for the first time since February 2019, when they won 3-1 at Elland Road under current Leeds boss Farke. They have since gone five games without a win against Leeds, losing four in a row before the first-leg 0-0 draw at Carrow Road.

The last time these two clubs met at Elland Road was on 24 January, with Leeds winning 1-0 thanks to Patrick Bamford’s 16th-minute strike.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Leeds vs Norwich Prediction

Leeds vs Norwich Prediction Playoffs

Leeds are predicted to win this match by the Opta supercomputer, with the Yorkshire club victorious in 57.7% of the pre-match simulations. Norwich won the match 20% of the time, while a draw inside 90 minutes was played out in 22.3% of sims, seeing the tie head to extra-time.

Overall, Leeds are still the favourites to win promotion to the Premier League via the Championship play-offs this season. They were promoted in 35.5% of the latest Opta supercomputer simulations, ahead of Southampton (31.3%), Norwich (16.6%) and West Brom (16.5%).


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